A Delta Economics report commissioned by HSBC predicts that U.S. trade will increase by 95% by 2026 and that growth in exports will be led by shipments to developing countries. “Traditional export•driven economies in ‘emerging’ markets are becoming more consumer•driven and importing more from high•end developed nation producers like the United States to fulfill demand,” an HSBC press release quoted Senior Executive Vice President Steve Bottomley as saying. “U.S. businesses should not ignore this important shift, and growth driver, but instead position themselves to become beneficiaries of this opportunity that is expected to help fuel global trade for many years to come.”
Highlights of the report include the following:
• U.S. trade growth is forecast to average 3.3% annually over the next five years and then accelerate to more than 6% by 2021.
• Canada and Mexico will remain the two main export partners for the U.S. and its number two and three sources for imports through 2016. However, growth will be relatively slow, with annual exports up 1.7% to Canada and 4% to Mexico and imports rising 0.7% and 3%, respectively.
• Emerging nations expected to import U.S. goods at the fastest pace during the next five years include Peru (8.7%), Turkey and Brazil (each more than 8%) and India (7.6%).
• U.S. imports from emerging nations are also expected to rise during this period, led by Vietnam at around 7% and Colombia, Russia and Singapore at 5•7%.
• Exports of soy beans, coal and petroleum should all see significant growth during the next five years, above 9%. Biopharmaceuticals and telecommunications equipment are the two fastest growing non-commodity exports at 8.6% and 6.7%.
• 59% of U.S.-based importers and exporters anticipate an overall increase in their trade volumes over the next six months, with 29% identifying Latin America as their greatest opportunity for trade growth and 23% naming China. U.S. businesses are also more optimistic about the state of the global economy, with 44% expecting it to improve by the end of the year, up from 29% in the latter part of 2011.
• China is expected to continue see strong annual growth in both imports (5.1%) and exports (4.7%) through 2016. The annual growth rate of U.S. exports to China is forecast to outpace that of U.S. imports from China during this period.
• China and Germany are set to leapfrog the U.S. to become the world’s largest importers by 2026.
Source: STR Trade Report